Trump's Venezuelan Gamble

Trump's latest spin of the foreign policy roulette wheel is unlikely to end well

So after Trump’s commando raid to capture Venezuela’s president, who’s in charge of the country right now. As far as I can tell the Maduro regime is still running things with his VP being sworn in. Swooping in and taking Maduro doesn’t solve anything if a new democratically elected government doesn’t take over. Things staying the same but with a new leader would be a bad outcome, but it could go far worse.

There are numerous ways this could play out, most of them are bad for American interests. Most concerning is a real possibility of a civil war breaking out between the people who support the opposition and the remnants of the Maduro regime. If that happens there will be more refugees and likely more drugs coming out of Venezuela, the exact opposite of what Trump claims to want.

It’s become pretty clear the main goal was to seize control of Venezuelan oil fields, Trump has basically said as much publicly. That’s a horrible and likely doomed policy. Venezuela produces a heavy crude oil that’s difficult to refine which is in part why they export a fairly small amount of oil despite having such huge oil reserves. American oil companies have expressed little interest in going into Venezuela because it would take a huge investment in a politically unstable area that might never pay off when they’re already making huge profits.

Beyond that, the perception that America just wants the oil will damage our foreign policy goals for decades to come. When Bush invaded Iraq there was widespread condemnation that he was only after the oil. As poorly thought out as that invasion was, Bush didn’t seize the oil fields and Iraq is an independent country today, even if the lives of average Iraqis are no better today than they were before the war. Trump is now feeding into this widespread perception of the greedy American imperialist. That will tie the hands of American diplomatic efforts for generations. Attempts to spread democracy and western ideas of freedom to the rest of the world will run into understandable questions about American motivations.

Regime change is a dangerous game to play. There are nearly always internal political forces that are difficult or impossible to predict how they will react. Basing policy on how we believe another country’s people should react to an American backed coup is a risky gamble. In most cases external regime change leads to a series of unexpected results.

So, what exactly does Trump hope will happen as a result of this action? Fewer drugs coming out of Venezuela? Venezuela isn’t a major supplier of drugs to America so that’s unlikely. If anything the likely state of chaos created from the regime change might result in a greater flow of drugs through the country. Fewer refugees from Venezuela? Chaos and potential civil war is likely to increase the flow of people out of the country and make it harder to return Venezuelans already in America. Secure oil for America? Again oil companies are showing reluctance to get back into Venezuela. Even if they did, America is already a net exporter of oil so it would have little effect on America’s economy. There’s little to be gained and much at risk.

Still, there was a possibility this could have worked, maybe it still can. They have an internationally recognized leader who is believed to have won last year’s elections before Maduro unilaterally declared his victory. Installing him as president would give a new government legitimacy, both internally and internationally. And of course they do have oil resources and somewhat of a government bureaucracy for keeping necessities like the electricity and water flowing until the new government is fully up and running.

For any of that to happen there will need to be a huge American presence in the country to keep order. By all accounts that is not what Trump has in mind. Trump has already ruled out trying to put the democratically elected opposition leader in power and seems to prefer dealing with a compliant dictator. The rhetoric coming out of Caracas seems to indicate more Venezuelan defiance.

The most likely scenarios are either the continued rule by the remnants of the Maduro regime or a power vacuum and likely civil war. In either event the odds of a favorable result for American interests seems unlikely.